|
Useful Links |
|
|
Article Details :: |
|
|
| Article Name : | | | Forecasting Cultivated Areas And Production Of Wheat In India Using ARIMA Model | | Author Name : | | | K. Prabakaran , C. Sivapragasam , C. Jeevapriya And A. Narmatha | | Publisher : | | | Ashok Yakkaldevi | | Article Series No. : | | | GRT-2831 | | Article URL : | |  | Author Profile View PDF In browser | | Abstract : | | | Wheat area and production in India data for the period of 1950-51 to 2011-12 were analyzed by time series methods. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques.ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model were used to forecast area and production in India for five leading years. The results also shows area forecast for the year 2015 to be about 31.46 thousand hectare with upper and lower limit 34.25 and 31.46 thousand hectares respectively. The model also shows Wheat production forecast for the year 2015 to be about 97.73 thousand tonnes with upper and lower limit 107.55 and 87.92 thousand tonnes respectively. | | Keywords : | | |
|
|