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| Article Name : | | | AN ANALYSIS OF CASHEW KERNELS AND CASHEW NUT SHELL LIQUID EXPORTS FROM INDIA EMPLOYING ARIMA MODEL | | Author Name : | | | K. Prabakaran , C. Sivapragasam , C. Ravindran | | Publisher : | | | Ashok Yakkaldevi | | Article Series No. : | | | GRT-3344 | | Article URL : | |  | Author Profile View PDF In browser | | Abstract : | | | Cashew kernels and Cashew Nut Shell Liquid (CNSL) export from India data were analyzed by time series methods for the period of 1990-1991 to 2009-2010. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques.ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is used to forecast Cashew kernels and Cashew Nut Shell Liquid export from India for five leading years. The results also show Cashew kernels export forecast for the year 2015 to be about 125374million tonnes with upper and lower limit 158798 and 91949 million tonnes respectively. The model also shows Cashew Nut Shell Liquid export forecast for the year 2015 to be about 10799 million tonnes with upper and lower limit 20152 and 1445.8 million tonnes respectively. | | Keywords : | | |
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